Sunday, October 14, 2007

The political career of Vladimir Vladimirivich Putin.



"Vladimir V. Putin is not a household name," wrote The New York Times on Aug. 9, 1999, the day that an ailing and foundering President Boris N. Yeltsin appointed him the latest in a string of prime ministers. Four and a half months later, Yeltsin resigned and anointed him his successor as president. And since then Putin has in a way become the only household name in Russian politics, having consolidated control over almost every aspect of society and business and marginalized what opposition still exists. In nearly eight years in the Kremlin he has crushed opposition, stripped regional governments of their autonomy, reasserted state control of Russia's energy resources and eliminated most independent media. But thanks to the stability that he has brought, and even more to oil-and-gas-fired growth, Putin remains extremely popular with ordinary Russians, writes The Economist.

Putin's supporters maintain that Russians are not ready for liberal democracy, preferring their tradition of a benevolent dictator/tsar. They contrast the stability and prosperity of the Putin years with the chaos and poverty of the Yeltsin years. Some go further, echoing Mr Putin's view that, even if nobody wants to return to communism, the collapse of the Soviet Union was still the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the late 20th century.


He led Russia back to its historical dependence on one powerful leader, and he did this with the support of a large majority of the Russian people. In some way he has to go. But in some way, he wants to stay.

(...) Keen to avoid unflattering comparisons to the presidents-for-life of central Asian ex-Soviet republics, Mr Putin will find a placeman to stand for president (perhaps the man he just plucked out of obscurity to be his own prime minister, Viktor Zubkov). He himself will then take the post of prime minister, which he held briefly in 1999, probably with enhanced powers. After a decent interval, he could then return to the Kremlin as president.

Before, Putin sent his prime minister into political exile and installed a shadowy newcomer (does he have something on the president?), all the while leaving in place two other potential heirs to the presidency (why didn’t one of them get the prime minister’s job?). Putin continued to insist that he will abide by term limits and not run for president next year (but will he stick to that?). Then he spoke about is future in the Duma. Conveniently, Russia's Constitution puts the prime minister in direct line to succeed the country's president. NYT wrote that whe cannot begrudge the Russians a measure of stability and prosperity after what they have gone through. But what they need now is to start building a true democracy on the basis of that stability and prosperity.

We hope Mr. Putin will rethink this cynical game. If he does run for Parliament, he could use his seat to share his experience and skills with a new political generation -- but we doubt it. If his only intention is to hold on to power, then he will be proclaiming that institutions don't matter, only the person manipulating them. Russia's been there, too long. That is not what it needs now.

In the Dec. 2 parliamentary elections in Russia, about 105 million Russians will be eligible to vote. It is an election that will likely set the course for the future political career of Vladimir Vladimirivich Putin.

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